Britain is expected to have enough gas supplies to meet household and business needs this summer despite a major increase in prices caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
National Gas confirmed that Great Britain’s gas stocks should be sufficient and will even allow for some exports to mainland Europe.
The statement comes as National Gas released its outlook for summer 2026 during a period of instability in global energy markets.
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Oil and gas prices have risen sharply since late February following clashes between US-Israeli & Iranian forces.
UK natural gas futures rose to about 120.7 pence per therm on Monday compared to around 78 pence per therm before the conflict escalated.
The instability has resulted in several liquefied natural gas production facilities in Qatar and other parts of the Middle East being targeted by missiles.
Exports from the region have also faced major disruption due to problems in the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor.
National Gas stated that Britain’s gas requirements will mainly be met by supplies extracted from the UK Continental Shelf & imports from Norway.
Around 86% of total gas supply is expected to come from these sources.
National Gas said it expects this volume will be enough to exceed forecast demand from Great Britain & gas exported to Ireland.
However it added that around 5% of total supply will also come from flexible gas storage & around 9% of supply will come from LNG imports.
Forecasts were prepared before the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East but National Gas said it has reviewed its analysis since then & concluded that the market is expected to still have sufficient capacity and capability to meet forecasts.
Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen from National Gas said that while the situation in the Middle East has raised questions about Britain’s gas supplies the forecasts indicate the market has the capacity to deliver sufficient supply to meet demand this summer.
He added that the diversity of supply sources including domestic production & imports from Norway & LNG and storage provides resilience and flexibility as supply flows and demand patterns change.
Demand for gas is forecast to be similar to summer 2025 according to the projections. National Gas expects about a 6% reduction in gas demand used for electricity generation but said this will be largely offset by an expected 2% rise in demand from residential and commercial consumers. Ian Radley from National Gas said that gas continues to play a critical role in supporting the electricity system even during the summer months. He noted that as renewable output fluctuates gas-fired power stations are increasingly required to respond quickly and the network must be able to support that safely and reliably. He said it is important that ongoing coordinated action between Government and industry and regulators continues to address future risks arising from declining domestic production & an increasing reliance on imports.
