The UK might experience food shortages of chicken & pork by summer if the Iran war continues according to a worst case scenario prepared by government officials. A government source told the BBC that planners are considering a situation where the Strait of Hormuz stays closed & carbon dioxide supplies break down.
CO2 is used to slaughter some animals and preserve food A spokesperson from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs said they would keep working with businesses to address the war’s impact They added that reasonable worst case scenarios are planning tools used by experts and not predictions of what will happen.
After the US and Israel launched extensive strikes on Iran the Iranian government responded by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz This crucial waterway for oil and gas transport has caused prices for petrol, diesel and fertiliser to increase sharply.
ISA Income Strategy 2026: How Savers Can Build £100 Monthly Passive Income From Investments
Business Secretary Peter Kyle said CO2 shortages were not a concern at this moment after The Times reported that senior officials had practiced scenarios about how British industry would be affected if the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed.
He told Sky News that people should continue as normal right now Food sector leaders shared similar views with the government saying they were more worried about price increases than shortages. Tesco’s chief executive Ken Murphy said the supermarket’s growers, suppliers and manufacturers had not raised supply risks yet Murphy said they were in very good shape but would not comment on potential food price changes because the situation is volatile and unpredictable.
The British Retail Consortium represents over 200 major brands including Sainsburys & Pret. They said they expected the government to do contingency planning & added that retailers were experienced in managing supply chain disruption However a spokesperson said the Middle East situation continues to add inflationary pressure when retailers already face significant new costs from domestic policies.
Other industry groups like the Food and Drink Federation forecast food inflation to reach 9% by December. The Agricultural Industries Confederation raised concerns about increased fertiliser costs. Jo Gilberton who heads the AIC said rising fertiliser prices could affect planting decisions in autumn.
She warned that a potential food crisis could happen if fertiliser and fuel costs become too high. Last month the National Farmers’ Union said cucumber & tomato prices could rise over the next six weeks with other crops and milk costs increasing in the next three to six months.
Lord Toby Harris chairs the National Preparedness Commission which is an independent body promoting policies to help the UK prepare for threats & challenges. He told BBC Radio 4 that testing how to manage under various scenarios would be beneficial as international events continue to affect the UK.
The government temporarily restarted the Ensus bioethanol plant last month in response to the Middle East war. The plant produces CO2 renewable fuel and protein animal feed after being mothballed in September 2026. A spokesperson told the BBC they were confident they can continue producing CO2 for the country’s needs for the foreseeable future.
Most of the UK’s CO2 is imported from Europe but it is often produced as a byproduct when companies make fertiliser which needs natural gas. The International Monetary Fund warned earlier this week that the war could push the global economy into recession with the UK expected to be the hardest hit among advanced economies.
UK Pension Policy Vote 2026: Labour Secures Support for New Powers Over Private Pension Funds
US President Donald Trump suggested that talks aimed at ending the Iran war could resume this week after negotiations collapsed at the weekend. This prompted the US to blockade Iranian ports. On Wednesday Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the US made a mistake by ending diplomatic negotiations with Iran and entering into military conflict.
